Publications & Reports
Research that makes complex systems easier to understand.
Explore our research publications and reports on business, economics, technology, infrastructure and global trade.
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A focused collection of published research.
This page brings together Trimline Research publications in one place. Use each summary to choose a topic, then select the concise brief or the full research note.
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Research note 11
The $800 Billion Bet
Big Tech expects to spend more than $800 billion this year on data centers, chips and other capital projects, most of it driven by AI. For that to pay off, AI revenue has to multiply within the working life of the chips it buys, about five years in our base case.
Research publications
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Ten additional publications across technology, currencies, macroeconomics, energy, commodities, infrastructure and global trade.
10
Twenty-One Miles Wide
Before the war, about a fifth of the world’s oil passed through one narrow strait. When war closed it in 2026, shipping stopped almost overnight, the Gulf economies that depend on it went into reverse and Asia scrambled for fuel. Oil is moving again, but getting it out of the Gulf still costs far more than it did, and the whole world is paying for that.
09
The Price of Plastic
Plastic is made from oil and gas, so you would expect its price to follow theirs. Often it doesn’t. In 2026, US plastic prices jumped faster than their own raw materials, then shrugged off oil above $125. The reasons run straight through a decade of Chinese building.
08
The Dollar Is Eroding. Nothing Is Replacing It.
The dollar’s reserve share has declined for twenty-five years, yet no single currency, commodity or digital asset is replacing it. The evidence points to diversification rather than succession.
07
Rethinking Gold’s Rally
Gold can rise during both inflation and recession fears. This note examines the real-rate mechanism, central-bank reserve diversification and the limits of the inflation-hedge story.
06
The Chip Only Three Companies Can Build
Every phone, car and AI model depends on leading-edge semiconductors that only a handful of companies can manufacture—and on critical machines built by one supplier.
01
The Yen Paradox
Why Japan’s currency can keep weakening even while the country remains one of the world’s largest creditor economies.
02
Burgernomics
What a global burger price can reveal about purchasing power—and where the Big Mac Index reaches its limits.
03
The Price of Cheap Power
A low retail electricity price does not necessarily reflect the full cost of generating, maintaining and delivering power.
04
Why Coffee Costs More Than Tea
Labour, processing, climate exposure, trade history and the way value is distributed across each supply chain all influence the price consumers ultimately pay.
05
Airports Don’t Just Make Money From Airplanes
The modern airport is a transport system, commercial property portfolio and freight node at the same time. The runway creates the flow; the business is what gets built around it.
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